Workers in the music sector could lose up to 25% of their income to artificial intelligence (AI) within the next four years, according to a new study.

The warning, as reported by The Guardian, comes from the first global economic study to assess the impact of generative AI on human creativity. Released by the International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers (CISAC), the report highlights the risk that creators’ income streams could shrink significantly as AI technology continues to grow, with the generative AI market expected to balloon from €3bn to €64bn annually by 2028.

The study states: “In an unchanged regulatory framework, creators will actually suffer losses on two fronts: the loss of revenues due to the unauthorised use of their works by Gen AI models without remuneration; and replacement of their traditional revenue streams due to the substitution effect of AI-generated outputs, competing against human-made works”.

CISAC President and former ABBA member Björn Ulvaeus added: “For creators of all kinds, from songwriters to film directors, screenwriters to film composers, AI has the power to unlock new and exciting opportunities – but we have to accept that, if badly regulated, generative AI also has the power to cause great damage to human creators, to their careers and livelihoods. Which of these two scenarios will be the outcome? This will be determined in large part by the choices made policy makers, in legislative reviews that are going on across the world right now. It’s critical that we get these regulations right, protect creators’ rights and help develop an AI environment that safeguards human creativity and culture.”

Ulvaeus pointed to Australia and New Zealand as examples of countries where policies are being proactively implemented to safeguard creators’ rights and ensuring that AI is used for good. “In Australia, the new senate select committee on AI report is encouraging and promising,” said Ulvaeus. “By setting a gold standard in AI policy, one that protects creators’ rights while fostering responsible and innovative technological development, Australia and New Zealand can ensure that AI serves as a tool to enhance human creativity rather than replace it.”

“The world is watching, and the decisions made will resonate far beyond these shores,” he added.

Ulvaeus further warned that creators face a double threat. The unauthorised use of their works by AI models could lead to a decline in copyright-related income, while AI-generated content grows in competition with human-made music. The report forecasts that, by 2028, AI music will account for 20% of the revenue from traditional music streaming platforms and 60% of the revenue from music libraries.

Read the full study here.

This issue of AI’s impact on music creators is not new. Back in August, DJ Mag reported on a survey conducted by APRA AMCOS, which found that 23% of Australian and New Zealand musicians believe that generative AI could harm their earnings in the next four years. The APRA AMCOS report also revealed that while many musicians are embracing AI in their work, a significant portion remains concerned about its potential to undermine their livelihoods.

The issue of AI’s role in music has also been highlighted in the UK, where the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Music has called for government action to safeguard artists. As reported by DJ Mag back in May, the group argued that AI-generated music should be subject to regulation, including laws that require artists’ consent for their works to be used in AI training, and clear attribution for AI-generated music. This follows concerns from artists such as FKA twigs, who spoke about the exploitation of her likeness in AI-generated works without her consent.

The potential for AI to disrupt the music industry was further underscored in YouTube’s experiments with AI music. In July, the platform began trialling a new AI-powered feature called Dream Track, which allows users to create music by generating AI voice clones of popular artists. While YouTube has committed to securing licenses for AI music projects, its experiments with AI-generated music have raised concerns about how these developments will affect artists and the industry

For further insights on the debate over AI in music, including calls for regulation and moves by YouTube and record labels, see DJ Mag’s previous coverage on YouTube’s AI licensing deals and the UK parliamentary group’s push for regulation.